MISSOURI AMENDMENT 5: THE MATHEMATICAL TRAP OF THE "EVERYTHING TAX"

Prepared by: John Dady

Contact: citizensagainsttyranny1776@gmail.com | iwriteyoushare.com

1. The Real Taxable Base: Missouri's $130 Billion Baseline

The real taxable base—our actual retail economic activity as citizens of the state of Missouri—is roughly $130 billion a year.

This $130 billion represents what Missouri households actually spend at cash registers and online checkouts for physical goods. It is the real starting baseline for state sales tax calculations.

2. The Raw Math Equation

Missouri’s state personal income tax generates roughly $8.5 billion to $9.0 billion per year, making up over 60% of the state’s General Revenue fund.

To calculate the exact sales tax rate increase required to replace that $9.0 billion solely from current consumer spending, the equation breaks down vertically as follows:

* Target Revenue Needed: $9,000,000,000

* Current Retail Base: ÷ $130,000,000,000

* Required State Sales Tax Increase: = 6.92%

When added directly onto Missouri’s current tax structure:

* Current Base State Sales Tax Rate: 4.225%

* Required Rate Increase: +6.923%

* New Base State Sales Tax Rate: 11.15%

* Average Local Sales Tax (Cities/Counties): ~4.20%

* Total Combined Tax Rate at the Register: 15.35%

3. The "Everything Tax" & The Base Expansion Trap

Proponents recognize that a 15.35% tax rate at the register is politically unviable. To artificially pull that headline rate down, their strategy requires dramatically expanding the sales tax base to capture non-retail transactions and everyday human services that are currently 100% tax-free.

When proponents claim, "We won't tax everything," the math proves that statement is false:

* If Lawmakers Grant Exemptions: Exempting major sectors (like healthcare, housing, or agriculture) shrinks the taxable base right back toward $130 billion, forcing the cash-register tax rate on remaining purchases up to 15.35% or higher.

* If Lawmakers Lower the Rate: The only way to keep the sales tax rate lower while still collecting $9.0 billion is to bring literally 100% of all human economic activity into the tax net.

Under base expansion, every routine service, monthly bill, household utility, communication service, daycare expense, personal care service, and daily transaction required to live and work in Missouri becomes subject to state tax. You cannot "cut back" to avoid the tax when living itself is taxed.

4. The Double-Dipping Reality: You Pay Both

Passing Amendment 5 does not eliminate your state income tax now or in the foreseeable future. It is structured as a slow, conditional phase-out. That means for years to come, citizens will still be obligated to pay the lion's share of their state income tax.

At the same time, it immediately hands lawmakers the constitutional authority to impose new sales taxes on an unknown number of goods and services that have never been taxed before.

Missourians get hit with both simultaneously:

1. You keep paying your regular state income tax.

2. Plus, you get the "privilege" of paying new sales taxes on nearly everything required to live and work in the state.

3. The $70,000 Median Household Example

Using the Missouri median household income of $70,000 for a family of four (Married Filing Jointly), the actual math exposes the net loss for working families.

A. Current State Income Tax Owed (Graduated Bracket System)

* Gross Household Income: $70,000

* Missouri Standard Deduction: -$32,000

* Taxable State Income: $38,000

* Tax on First $9,191 (Progressive lower brackets): $256

* Tax on Remaining $28,809 (Top 4.7% bracket): $1,354

* Total Annual State Income Tax Owed: $1,610 (~$134/month)

B. The New Sales Tax Burden

A middle-class family of four living on $70,000 spends roughly $35,000 to $40,000 annually on retail goods and essential living expenses.

* Scenario 1: Goods and Services Tax Hike (+6.92% State Sales Tax Increase)

* Income Tax Saved: +$1,610

* New Sales Tax Paid ($35,000 spent × 6.92%): -$2,422

* Net Annual Loss: -$812 out of pocket

* Scenario 2: Expanded Base ("The Everything Tax")

If lawmakers expand the tax base to cover all daily services and utilities to keep the rate bump around +5.5% state and local combined, the family's entire $40,000 in living spending becomes taxable.

* Income Tax Saved: +$1,610

* New Sales Tax Paid ($40,000 spent × 5.5%): -$2,200 to -$2,600

* Net Annual Loss: -$590 to -$990 out of pocket

6. Conclusion for Missouri Voters

The narrative that eliminating the state income tax provides relief to middle-class Missourians collapses under basic arithmetic.

Passing Amendment 5 traps taxpayers in a double-dip: you continue paying the lion's share of your state income tax while absorbing new sales and services taxes. To replace $9.0 billion in state revenue, lawmakers face an inescapable dilemma: drive cash-register sales taxes to 15.35%, or slap a brand-new tax on literally every single service and transaction across the state. In either scenario, the average middle-class household paying $1,610 in income tax will end up paying $2,200 to $2,600+ in new taxes—leaving working families $600 to $1,000 worse off every single year.

John Dady

citizensagainsttyranny1776@gmail.com | iwriteyoushare.com